Nevertheless, the possibility of going towards an overthrow of the regime (or by means of a democratising rise the pro-USA or one of the socialism ) is something that, although it can burst in the middle of a compressed volcano, is something that not vigilant in the more the future immediate. An island that depends on the world-wide scene At the moment the tendency that is perceived more is the one of which the Castro ones are reincorporated to the region and creating commercial alliances that they look for to resist to the Free Trade Agreement with the USA by a Latin American protectionistic block. ituation. As more Cuba strengthens its bows with Venezuela and the Mercosur, two phenomena will be able to be generated. One can be the emergencia of a wing of countries that they try to use South-American hydrocarbons and the economies relatively less employees of Argentina and Brazil to make a form of Latin block in the style of the Union European. The other can be to continue pressing so that Castro goes away DES-sovietizando and abriendo his economic regime and political towards one more compatible the one than they have Venezuela or Brazil. Several analysts agree in saying that while the USA comes being relaxing in the middle East Catsro and Chvez has come advancing in his back patio.

Nevertheless, the USA Western Asia requires to latinoamericanizar (that is to say, to replace protectionistic regimes by that liberalize to the economy and the policy). If it achieves that objective it will be able to consolidate at global level and in the Americas. From which Chvez as much tries to support to Iran and to organize with Russia, Belarus, Vietnam and China a counterbalance to Washington. The future on this island it depends on the international scene. It was the Soviet interest that played great roll in transforming to democratising Fidel of rebellious to communist expropiator.

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